CarMax's most pressing challenge is the structural compression of vehicle affordability that has reduced unit sales from a peak of approximately 1.2 million combined retail and wholesale units in fiscal 2023 to 1.33 million in fiscal 2025. In fiscal 2025, retail used unit sales grew 3.1% to 789,050, but this recovery follows a steep decline from 807,000+ units in fiscal 2023. The company explicitly attributes weak demand to 'vehicle affordability challenges' including 'widespread inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, tightened lending standards and low consumer confidence.' The weighted average contract rate on CAF loans rose to 11.3% in fiscal 2025 from 11.2% in fiscal 2024, making monthly payments less affordable for subprime and near-prime borrowers. CAF's provision for loan losses increased significantly in fiscal 2025, reflecting industry-wide deterioration in auto loan performance. In Q2 FY2025, CAF increased its estimate of lifetime losses on existing loans by $52.2 million—an 11% increase in loss expectations—due to 'the recent industry wide worsening of auto loan losses.' The allowance for loan losses was $458.7 million (2.61% of managed receivables) as of February 28, 2025, down from 2.70% three months earlier but still elevated. Competition is intensifying from digital-native retailers, particularly Carvana, which operates without physical superstores and has invested heavily in vending machine-style delivery centers and fully online transactions. Amazon's announced entry into used car sales—initially as an advertising and lead generation platform—could disrupt CarMax's digital customer acquisition. Traditional dealership groups and online marketplaces like Autotrader and Cars.com also compete for used vehicle customers. Wholesale auction competition from Manheim (a Cox Automotive subsidiary) and ACV Auctions threatens CarMax's wholesale volume and margins. The company's physical store network, while a competitive advantage for customer trust and vehicle inspection, requires significant capital investment and fixed costs. Each new superstore costs approximately $15-20 million to build and outfit, with ongoing occupancy and staffing expenses. In fiscal 2025, depreciation and amortization was $255.3 million, and interest expense was $107.9 million. The company's reliance on CAF income exposes it to credit cycle risk. If unemployment rises or consumer defaults increase, CAF's loan loss provisions could expand significantly, compressing profitability. In fiscal 2025, CAF income was $581.7 million, but a 100 basis point increase in loan loss provisions would reduce CAF income by approximately $176 million. The used vehicle market is also subject to wholesale price volatility. In Q2 FY2025, average wholesale selling prices declined approximately $1,150 per unit (12.9%) year-over-year, compressing wholesale revenue by 12.7% despite a mere 0.3% decline in wholesale units. Similarly, average retail selling prices declined approximately $1,250 per unit (4.6%) in Q2 FY2025, offsetting unit growth. This price deflation reflects normalization of used vehicle values after pandemic-era peaks but creates margin pressure when acquisition costs do not decline proportionally. CarMax's SG&A leverage is also a concern. SG&A as a percent of gross profit was 84.0% in fiscal 2025, up from 84.3% in fiscal 2024 (which benefited from a Takata legal settlement). The company requires 'low-single-digit gross profit growth' to lever SG&A, meaning even modest revenue declines or gross profit compression could prevent operating leverage. Share-based compensation, which fluctuates with the stock price, added volatility to SG&A: $137.3 million in fiscal 2025 versus $122.4 million in fiscal 2024.