The work of economist Natalia Voronina from the Financial University shows the numerical changes in a number of macroeconomic indicators when the key rate moves ("Economics and Business: Theory and Practice", No. 1, 2020).
- The models show that an increase in the key rate by 1% will lead to an increase in interest rates on consumer loans by 0.87%, on lending to the non-financial sector - by 1.02%. Thus, once again, a closer correlation is proved between interest rates on loans to non-financial organizations and the key rate than with the situation in the consumer loans market. One of the reasons for this may be the fact that the structure of turnovers is different: more than 92% of the total volume of loans are provided to individuals for a period of more than 1 year, while organizations of the non-financial sector in 32% of cases prefer to receive loans for up to 30 days, in 42% - from 31 days to 1 year.
- An increase in the value of the key rate by 1 percentage point will lead to a decrease in the volume of loans provided to individuals by 345.4 billion rubles, to organizations in the non-financial sector - by 485.9 billion rubles.
- An increase by one (1%) in the value of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will lead to a decrease in the inflation rate by 1.91% at a fixed level of the monetary base. On the other hand, a 1% rise in inflation will be accompanied by a 0.373% increase in the key rate. This relationship arises due to the fact that the Bank of Russia implements an inflation targeting policy, the main instrument of which is the key rate. Thus, with a high level of inflation, an increase in the key rate makes it possible to restrict the demand for credit resources, thereby reducing the purchasing power of the population and investment activity. Thus, the rate of economic growth slows down and, as a consequence, inflation is contained.
(curbing economic growth in exchange for lower inflation)