What external factors do the dynamics of Russian exports and imports depend on? The short answer is largely from the state of the economies of Germany and China. Employees of the Center for Research on International Macroeconomics and Foreign Economic Relations of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nikitin and Ushkalov write about this in their work ("Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences", No. 6, 2019). Some brief takeaways from their work:
- Contrary to expectations, the growth rates of the economies of the G20 countries, which account for more than 85% of world GDP, generally do not have a strong impact on Russian exports and imports.
- The simulation results allow us to assert that there is a strong relationship between Russian exports (with a lag of one quarter) and the GDP of the EU, Germany and China, as well as an average relationship between EU GDP and Russian imports.
- The calculations showed that a change in German GDP by 1%, all other things being equal, leads to an increase in Russian exports in the next quarter by 4.2%, and a change in China's GDP by 1% - to an increase in domestic exports by 3%.
- The composite metal price index, which serves as the most important indicator of business activity, may be a better predictor of prices for key Russian exports in the next quarter than current prices for Brent crude.