SpaceX vs TikTok: Strategic Comparison

This in-depth comparison examines SpaceX and TikTok across revenue, market value, business model, competitive positioning, and long-term growth strategy. Whether you are researching SpaceX on its own, evaluating TikTok, or weighing the two companies side by side, the breakdown below highlights where each company leads and where the gap between SpaceX and TikTok is widest.

On the headline numbers, SpaceX reports annual revenue of $13.1B against $120.0B for TikTok, while their respective market capitalizations stand at $350.0B and $360.0B. SpaceX is headquartered in United States and TikTok operates from China / Global, and those different home markets shape how each company competes.

SpaceX: SpaceX conducted more orbital launches in 2024 than any nation on Earth, including China's entire state-run space program. A single American private company, employing approximately 13,000 people in Hawthorne, California, now controls a larger fraction of global orbital access than any government space agency except NASA — and for many payload types, SpaceX has replaced NASA as the preferred provider. The Falcon 9 booster fleet has now flown and returned more than 300 times cumulatively, with individual boosters completing over 23 missions, compressing the cost per kilogram to orbit to a fraction of what the space shuttle or Ariane 5 achieved. The company generated $13.1 billion in revenue in FY2024, a 51% increase from $8.7 billion in FY2023 — driven primarily by Starlink subscriber growth rather than launch revenue alone. Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with the explicit goal of making humanity multiplanetary, a mission that required first solving the economics of space access. The reusable rocket technology that accomplished this was not available for purchase; SpaceX had to invent it while simultaneously operating a commercial launch business and maintaining a relationship with NASA complex enough to sustain the government contracts required to fund the development. The December 2024 valuation of approximately $350 billion makes SpaceX worth more than Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon combined — a comparison that would have been considered absurd as recently as 2015. The comparison is also structurally significant: Boeing and Lockheed Martin have spent decades as the dominant suppliers of launch vehicles to the U.S. Government, and SpaceX has systematically displaced them from that position at lower prices and with higher reliability. The political economy of this displacement — involving billions of dollars in contracts redirected and thousands of aerospace jobs at established contractors affected — has been the most consequential industrial restructuring in American aerospace history. Starlink is the revenue engine that the launch business built. The satellite constellation requires continuous replenishment launches — SpaceX launches its own satellites on its own rockets, making Starlink the most vertically integrated communications infrastructure project in commercial history. Each new generation of Starlink satellites delivered by SpaceX Falcon 9s simultaneously improves the product for existing subscribers and extends the company's lead over potential competitors who lack the launch frequency to build comparable constellations.

TikTok: TikTok reached 1 billion monthly active users faster than any social media platform in history — including Facebook and Instagram — by solving a problem that its competitors had misdiagnosed for years. The problem was not that users lacked content. The problem was that users had to do work to find good content. TikTok's recommendation algorithm eliminated that work entirely, delivering a continuous stream of engaging videos to users who had provided almost no preference signals, based purely on watch time, replays, and scroll behavior. The platform launched internationally in 2017, merged with Musical.ly in 2018, and by September 2021 had crossed 1 billion monthly active users. ByteDance, the Chinese parent company founded by Zhang Yiming in 2012, has never disclosed TikTok's revenue separately — third-party estimates suggest approximately $120 billion in 2024, up from $80 billion in 2022, though these figures conflate ByteDance's global revenue with TikTok's international operations. TikTok Shop launched in the United States in 2023, adding live commerce and in-app purchasing to a platform that had already established itself as a dominant force in consumer purchase discovery. The company acquired Musical.ly in 2017, Jukedeck (AI music generation) in 2019, and Pico (VR hardware) in 2021 — a portfolio of acquisitions that suggests strategic intent well beyond short-form video. The regulatory environment is the permanent overhead that no product improvement can address. India banned TikTok in 2020, eliminating approximately 200 million users with a single government order. The United States has cycled through attempted bans and forced divestiture legislation since 2020. Ireland fined TikTok €345 million in 2023 for violations of children's data protections under GDPR. Shou Zi Chew, who became CEO in 2021, has spent a significant portion of his tenure testifying before legislatures rather than operating the product.

SpaceX and TikTok pursue distinct approaches to generating revenue, and understanding how each company operates is the foundation of any fair comparison between SpaceX and TikTok.

SpaceX business model: Arianespace, the European consortium that dominated international commercial launches for nearly three decades, has faced existential pressure as its Ariane 6 rocket struggled to match SpaceX's pricing. SpaceX generates revenue through a multi-pillar architecture that spans government contracts, commercial launch services, and a rapidly scaling consumer broadband subscription business. Business and maritime plans command significantly higher monthly fees, ranging from 500 to 5,000 dollars depending on bandwidth tier. Starlink Aviation — the service for private and commercial aircraft — has signed agreements with airlines including Hawaiian Airlines and JSX, opening a high-value tier where per-aircraft monthly fees range from 12,500 to 25,000 dollars. Even once operational, Ariane 6's pricing structure — driven by European institutional cost floors and labor agreements across multiple national aerospace agencies — cannot approach Falcon 9's economics. But Starlink's four-year head start in constellation deployment, customer relationships, and user terminal manufacturing means Kuiper will need to offer meaningfully superior service or pricing to displace an entrenched incumbent. SpaceX is a private company and does not file public financial statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which means its financial profile is assembled from a combination of leaked internal documents, investor disclosures from secondary share sales, and reporting by Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and Reuters. Each mission generates failure data, component stress data, and operational process data that feeds directly back into engineering. T-Mobile's agreement to use SpaceX satellites to eliminate dead zones across the United States represents a revenue model — per-user fees split between SpaceX and the carrier — that could add tens of millions of addressable users without requiring them to purchase dedicated Starlink hardware. Finally, SpaceX's human spaceflight ambitions — servicing the ISS, preparing for commercial space stations as ISS is decommissioned, and eventually transporting crews to lunar and Martian destinations — represent growth vectors that are measured in decades but are actively being funded and developed today. The plan was compelling enough that Musk assembled a small group of engineers and space enthusiasts, including Jim Cantrell, a rocket propellant specialist, and Adeo Ressi, a college friend, and flew to Moscow in late 2001 to negotiate the purchase of two decommissioned Dnepr intercontinental ballistic missiles from Kosmotras, a Russian-Ukrainian commercial launch company.

TikTok business model: The company monetizes a behavioral loop: users open the app expecting to be entertained without effort, the algorithm delivers, and advertisers pay to insert themselves into that stream of passive consumption. Brands buy through TikTok Ads Manager using auction-based CPM and CPC bidding across formats including in-feed video ads, TopView takeovers (the first thing users see when opening the app), Spark Ads that amplify organic creator content, branded hashtag challenges, and increasingly sophisticated performance advertising with conversion tracking and dynamic product ads. Launched in the U.S. In September 2023, Shop integrates product discovery, creator-led reviews, live shopping broadcasts, affiliate commissions, and in-app checkout directly into the entertainment feed. TikTok takes commissions on transactions, charges merchants for storefront tools, and earns affiliate fees when creators drive sales. Subscription features let fans pay creators directly. There's no empty-feed problem. That's why TikTok's engagement per session stays high and why advertising inventory density exceeds what competitors can achieve with social-graph-dependent feeds. The content isn't as surprising as TikTok's feed — Meta's algorithm still leans on social signals rather than pure behavioral prediction — but advertisers don't optimize for surprise. YouTube's Partner Program pays more per view, offers more predictable income, and doesn't require constant viral hits to sustain a career. Every minute a teenager spends in Snapchat Stories or Spotlight is a minute TikTok doesn't monetize. The U.S. Alone likely contributes $15-18 billion of that, driven by CPMs that dwarf what TikTok earns in Southeast Asia or Latin America. TikTok pays creators substantially less per view than YouTube's Partner Program. Nobody copies the feed. The recommendation engine processes an extraordinary density of behavioral signals: watch time down to the millisecond, replay behavior, share patterns, comment sentiment, completion rates, scroll velocity, sound engagement, and hundreds of other inputs that feed models trained on billions of daily interactions across 150+ markets. The result is a feed that feels almost uncomfortably accurate. That asymmetry attracts a constant supply of novel content from unknown creators, which is precisely what keeps the feed feeling fresh rather than repetitive. The company is attempting something no Western social platform has pulled off: turning an entertainment feed into a transaction engine where buying feels like a natural extension of watching rather than an interruption. The Creator Fund, LIVE gifting, subscriptions, and revenue-sharing programs exist primarily to prevent top creators from migrating to YouTube or Instagram where per-view payouts are higher. No subscriptions. You just need a system that learns faster than the user gets bored. The price seemed steep for an app that couldn't monetize its own audience. Overnight, TikTok had a creator community, cultural credibility, and enough behavioral data to start personalizing feeds for audiences that had never heard of Toutiao.

The durability of a company's moat often decides long-term winners. Here is how the competitive advantages of SpaceX stack up against those of TikTok.

SpaceX competitive advantage: Each unit shares engineering talent and manufacturing capacity, creating an organizational fluidity that allows the company to shift resources toward highest-priority development work without the bureaucratic friction common in defense contractors of comparable revenue scale. The European Space Agency's response has been to fund development of new launch startups including Isar Aerospace and RocketFactory Augsburg, but none of these companies have yet demonstrated orbital capability at scale. Relativity Space, Firefly Aerospace, and ABL Space have all attempted to reach orbit; only Firefly has done so successfully on its Alpha rocket, and none operate at remotely comparable scale or economics. The compound annual growth rate over that three-year period exceeds 41 percent — extraordinary for a company of this scale. Profitability has improved markedly as Starlink scales. A 2024 FAA licensing investigation found SpaceX had conducted engine tests without required approvals, resulting in a fine of 633,009 dollars — a small sum financially but a signal of tightening regulatory scrutiny that could slow operations at scale. SpaceX's competitive position is built on a set of structural advantages that are exceptionally difficult to replicate on any near-term timeline, rooted in technical execution, cost architecture, and organizational culture. **First-Mover Advantage in Reusability** This advantage compounds: each reflown booster generates data that improves the next refurbishment cycle, driving down marginal launch costs in a way that a first-generation expendable rocket operator simply cannot match. Flying 134 times in a single year provides a learning-curve advantage that compounds quarterly.

TikTok competitive advantage: But the real story isn't scale. That's Meta's structural advantage: it can be slightly worse at entertainment and still win budgets. TikTok's commercial moat is deep. Its institutional moat is paper-thin. No other platform at this scale operates under active legislation designed to remove it from its largest revenue market. Every creator who treats TikTok as a distribution channel rather than a home weakens the platform's exclusive content advantage. Content moderation at this scale is essentially impossible to do perfectly. TikTok Shop creates a commerce advantage that pure entertainment platforms can't easily match. The accumulated behavioral data from years of global operation gives TikTok a training advantage that no new entrant can shortcut. That's not a moat you can see on a balance sheet, but it's the reason Meta has spent billions on Reels and still hasn't matched TikTok's discovery quality. If it scales, TikTok becomes an advertising AND commerce platform, which roughly doubles its addressable revenue. If Washington accepts a governance compromise — expanded Project Texas oversight, an independent board for U.S. Operations, algorithmic audits — TikTok keeps its $15-18 billion American ad market and TikTok Shop scales toward Douyin-level commerce penetration in the West.

Future prospects matter as much as current results. The growth strategies below explain how SpaceX and TikTok each plan to expand from here.

SpaceX growth strategy: The fourth launch attempt in September 2008 — conducted on a shoestring budget from a remote atoll in the Marshall Islands — was the last one the company could afford. That single launch is perhaps the most consequential moment in the history of commercial spaceflight, because it preserved a company that would go on to reduce the cost of sending a kilogram of payload to low Earth orbit from roughly 54,500 dollars aboard a Boeing Delta II to under 2,720 dollars aboard a Falcon 9 — a cost reduction of more than 95 percent that no government space agency or legacy defense contractor had achieved in six decades of trying. On the flight home, he sketched out the economics of building rockets from scratch and concluded it was not only feasible but potentially transformational. Two decades later, SpaceX has not merely disrupted the launch industry — it has effectively collapsed the business models of its incumbents. United Launch Alliance, the Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture that once held a near-monopoly on U.S. Government launches, has retreated from the commercial market entirely. In 2024, SpaceX conducted approximately 134 orbital launches — more than any nation on Earth, including China's entire state-run space program — and recovered and reflew orbital-class boosters more than 280 times cumulatively since the technology was first demonstrated in December 2015. But the launch business, impressive as it is, may ultimately prove to be the smaller half of SpaceX's commercial story. It has accomplished this while remaining entirely private, funding expansion through a combination of commercial revenue, U.S. Government contracts worth billions annually, and periodic equity raises that have attracted sovereign wealth funds, institutional investors, and technology-focused venture firms. SpaceX's business model spans three major revenue pillars: commercial and government launch services, NASA and Department of Defense contracts, and the rapidly expanding Starlink satellite internet service now serving more than 4.6 million subscribers in over 100 countries. The company conducted approximately 134 orbital launches in 2024, more than any single nation, and is actively developing the fully reusable Starship system — the largest rocket ever built — targeting both lunar surface missions for NASA and eventual crewed Mars missions. **Launch Services: The Foundation** The launch business remains the operational backbone of SpaceX and the source of its technical credibility. The company offers three active launch vehicles: the Falcon 9, a two-stage partially reusable rocket; the Falcon Heavy, a triple-core derivative of the Falcon 9 capable of delivering up to 63,800 kilograms to low Earth orbit; and the Starship system, a fully reusable super-heavy lift vehicle currently in advanced flight testing. List prices for Falcon 9 commercial launches start at approximately 67 million dollars per mission, while Falcon Heavy rides are priced beginning around 97 million dollars. The company's launch division is estimated to generate between 4 and 5 billion dollars in annual revenue, a figure that includes both commercial and U.S. Government missions. On the national security side, SpaceX holds contracts with the U.S. Space Force and National Reconnaissance Office for classified payload launches, collectively worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually. The company was awarded Phase 2 National Security Space Launch contracts in 2020, sharing the manifest with United Launch Alliance, and has since captured an increasingly dominant share of that schedule. **Starlink: The Growth Engine** Starlink is the fastest-growing and arguably most transformational element of SpaceX's business model. The subscriber base has grown from approximately 1 million in early 2022 to more than 4.6 million by mid-2025, with the distribution skewed toward residential customers in rural North America, maritime operators, aviation, and enterprise clients. The unit economics are improving as launch costs are amortized across a growing fleet of satellites that cost less to manufacture as production scales at SpaceX's Redmond, Washington satellite factory. This vertical integration strategy — modeled partly on Tesla's approach to battery and motor manufacturing — reduces the company's exposure to the kind of supply chain markups that inflated costs at Boeing and Lockheed by routing profit margins through hundreds of subcontractors. It also accelerates the design-build-test-iterate cycle that has been central to SpaceX's engineering culture since its earliest days in El Segundo, California. United Launch Alliance, the joint venture formed in 2006 between Boeing and Lockheed Martin to consolidate their launch businesses, once held an effective monopoly on U.S. National security launches. Its Atlas V and Delta IV vehicles were reliable, technically sophisticated, and extraordinarily expensive — launches reportedly costing between 350 and 500 million dollars each, funded by cost-plus government contracts that provided little incentive for efficiency. When SpaceX forced open competition for national security launches and demonstrated Falcon 9's reliability through dozens of successful missions, ULA's business model became untenable in the commercial market. By 2024, ULA had exited commercial launches almost entirely, relying on government contracts for survival while its new Vulcan Centaur rocket faced a prolonged certification process. In October 2024, Boeing and Lockheed agreed to sell ULA to Cerberus Capital Management for 1.26 billion dollars — a fraction of what either parent company had invested in it — marking a symbolic end to the old order. Arianespace's Ariane 5 rocket was the global benchmark for commercial launches throughout the 2000s and early 2010s, capturing roughly half the global commercial geostationary satellite launch market at its peak. Rocket Lab has carved out a credible niche in small satellite launches with its Electron rocket, conducting 52 Electron launches through mid-2025 and developing the Neutron medium-lift vehicle. New Glenn is a significant vehicle — capable of delivering 45 metric tons to low Earth orbit — and it will compete directly with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy for commercial and government launches. Perhaps the most strategically significant long-term competitive dynamic is China's state-driven investment in reusable launch capabilities. China conducted approximately 68 orbital launches in 2024, second only to SpaceX in absolute numbers, and has approved development of its own large satellite internet constellation, SatNet, with approval for more than 12,992 satellites. The geopolitical implications of Starlink's role in the Ukraine conflict — where it served as critical battlefield communications infrastructure — have accelerated Chinese investment in both domestic broadband satellites and anti-satellite capabilities. With those caveats clearly noted, the financial picture that has emerged is one of accelerating revenue growth driven overwhelmingly by Starlink's subscriber expansion. Starlink is estimated to account for approximately 8 billion dollars of 2024 revenue, with the remaining 5 billion dollars coming from launch services, government contracts, and other commercial activities. Operating margins on the Starlink business are believed to be in the low-to-mid teens percentage range as the subscriber base grows above the constellation's fixed cost floor. Launch services carry higher contribution margins on reflown boosters, potentially exceeding 40 percent on a fully amortized booster. SpaceX's December 2024 tender offer — which allowed existing employees and early investors to sell shares at a 350-billion-dollar valuation — was oversubscribed, reflecting continued institutional conviction in the company's growth trajectory. The implied valuation represents approximately 27 times estimated 2024 revenue, a premium that reflects both Starlink's high-growth profile and the optionality embedded in Starship's eventual commercial operation. The Federal Aviation Administration's oversight of SpaceX launch operations at Boca Chica, Texas has become an increasingly consequential constraint. Starship's first two integrated flight tests in 2023 required months-long regulatory reviews, and the environmental review process for expanded Starship operations at Starbase drew formal objections from environmental groups including the Center for Biological Diversity, which argued the launches threaten habitat for the endangered Aplomado falcon and the piping plover. Amazon has committed 10 billion dollars to Kuiper development and has secured launch commitments on multiple vehicles. Cost overruns and schedule delays in Starship development could strain the company's cash position if Starlink subscriber growth or launch revenue comes in below projections. **Launch Cadence as a Flywheel** The Starlink constellation is simultaneously a commercial product, a launch customer, and a technical test bed. SpaceX's growth strategy operates simultaneously across hardware development, market expansion, and vertical market penetration — a multi-front approach that makes it difficult for any single competitor to respond comprehensively. The target of reducing booster turnaround time to 24 hours — compared to the current several-week standard — would dramatically increase effective launch capacity without adding new production infrastructure. Each incremental improvement in turnaround time represents a direct reduction in the capital intensity of servicing a given launch manifest. On market expansion, Starlink's Direct to Cell initiative is the single most consequential near-term growth driver outside of core subscriber acquisition. The Starshield government broadband business represents a high-margin growth vector that requires minimal incremental infrastructure investment, since it largely rides on the existing Starlink constellation. As defense establishments globally grapple with the lessons of Starlink's battlefield performance in Ukraine — where it sustained communications through repeated attempts to jam or disable competing military satellite systems — demand for similar resilient broadband capability is growing among NATO and allied governments. Starship, if certified for commercial operations, would represent an order-of-magnitude shift in launch economics. Musk has repeatedly cited a target marginal cost per Starship launch of under 10 million dollars at full reuse — compared to Falcon 9's current marginal cost of approximately 15 to 20 million dollars. At those economics, the total addressable market for space logistics expands from today's 5 to 7 billion dollar annual launch market to potentially hundreds of billions as point-to-point Earth transportation, in-space manufacturing, and large-scale infrastructure deployment become economically viable. If fully approved by regulators and extended to data services, this capability could fundamentally expand the addressable market from specialty broadband users to essentially every mobile phone subscriber in areas with poor terrestrial coverage. He had grown up reading science fiction and Isaac Asimov, and he was troubled by what he perceived as a profound decline in public enthusiasm for space exploration. He proposed what he called the Mars Oasis mission: a small greenhouse module delivered to the Martian surface carrying seeds and nutrient gel that would generate images of plants growing on Mars — a visual proof of concept for life beyond Earth. Musk incorporated Space Exploration Technologies Corp. In Delaware in May 2002 and invested approximately 100 million dollars of his personal PayPal proceeds — roughly one-third of his liquid net worth at the time. In 2003, SpaceX secured its first launch contract: a commercial agreement to launch a Malaysian satellite.

TikTok growth strategy: That prediction engine, born from ByteDance's earlier work on news aggregation in China, has made TikTok the fastest-growing media platform in history — and the most politically dangerous technology export since Huawei's telecom equipment. The Western version is earlier but growing fast — users can buy a product without ever leaving the video that introduced them to it. TikTok LIVE lets creators earn through virtual gifts from viewers — a model that prints money in Asian markets and is growing in the West. The unit economics work because of one architectural choice: the algorithm doesn't need users to build follower networks to generate engagement. TikTok grew out of ByteDance's 2016 Douyin launch in China and its 2017 international rollout. Instagram Reels crossed 2 billion monthly active users without anyone noticing because Meta didn't need a launch moment. A YouTube creator builds an archive. TikTok represents a growing but still minority share of that total — Douyin, Toutiao, and other Chinese products still generate the majority of ByteDance's income. The growth trajectory is what's remarkable. My guess: the core ad business is highly profitable, and everything else is investment spending that depresses near-term margins but builds long-term optionality. TikTok Shop is the growth bet that matters most, and everything else is supporting infrastructure. It's a retention cost, not a growth driver. Zhang Yiming almost didn't build a video app. TikTok didn't grow like Facebook (college by college) or Instagram (influencer by influencer).

A closer look at the financial trajectory of SpaceX and TikTok rounds out the comparison.

SpaceX: SpaceX's revenue growth from $2.6 billion in FY2021 to $13.1 billion in FY2024 — a 4x increase in three years — is almost entirely attributable to Starlink subscriber growth rather than launch market expansion. The launch business, while growing, is bounded by the total number of orbital missions the global market requires. Starlink is bounded only by the number of households and businesses globally that need broadband connectivity, a market that is orders of magnitude larger than orbital launch. The $350 billion December 2024 valuation — established through tender offer transactions that allowed employees and early investors to sell secondary shares — is remarkable for a private company but reflects the Starlink terminal count, the subscriber revenue run rate, and the market's assessment of the defensibility of SpaceX's launch cost advantage. Boeing's failed Starliner program and ULA's relative lack of competitive response have reinforced the durability of SpaceX's market position. Revenue growth from FY2022's $4.6 billion to FY2023's $8.7 billion and FY2024's $13.1 billion followed the Starlink service expansion from beta testing in northern latitudes to global coverage, including the maritime, aviation, and cellular-backhaul markets that command higher average revenue per user than residential subscriptions. The Starlink direct-to-cell service, which turns unmodified smartphones into satellite communication devices in areas without terrestrial coverage, opens a addressable market that includes billions of people in emerging markets where building terrestrial infrastructure is not economically viable. The company remains private, and the $350 billion valuation is a secondary market price rather than a public market price, which means the liquidity premium that public companies receive is absent from the calculation. Whether SpaceX ultimately pursues a public offering — Musk has suggested Starlink might be spun off separately — will determine whether the current secondary market valuations prove conservative or optimistic relative to what public market investors would pay for the same assets.

TikTok: ByteDance does not disclose TikTok's revenue as a separate line item, which means every figure cited for TikTok's financial performance is an estimate derived from advertising market analysis, leaked internal documents, or extrapolation from ByteDance's total reported revenue. Third-party estimates place TikTok's 2024 revenue at approximately $120 billion, compared to $100 billion in 2023 and $80 billion in 2022 — growth rates that would be remarkable for any company and that reflect the platform's expanding share of global digital advertising budgets. TikTok's business model is primarily advertising — in-feed video ads, TopView takeovers, and branded content formats purchased through TikTok Ads Manager. The monetization rate per user has historically been lower than Facebook and YouTube in Western markets, partly because TikTok's audience skewed younger and partly because the platform's targeting capabilities were less mature. TikTok Shop represents an attempt to build a commerce revenue stream that is structurally distinct from advertising and could, over time, rival advertising in scale. The acquisition of Pico, the VR hardware company, in 2021 for an undisclosed amount is the most interesting capital allocation signal in TikTok's corporate history. VR hardware generates losses at scale, as Meta's Reality Labs division has demonstrated repeatedly. ByteDance buying into VR hardware suggests long-term positioning in spatial computing rather than a short-term revenue opportunity. Any honest financial analysis of TikTok must acknowledge the divestiture risk as a permanent discount applied to future revenue streams in the United States. If US operations are forced into a sale or shutdown, the advertising revenue associated with American users — a disproportionately valuable cohort given US advertising rates — would transfer to whoever acquires the business or disappear entirely. That contingency is unquantifiable but not negligible.